modeling contingent understanding aggregating predictive wisdom aggregating definitive understanding crowdsourcing contingent futures calculating probable understanding mapping the future aggregating intelligent forecasts modeling probable estimations assembling definitive forecasts aggregating calibrated insights generating calibrated wisdom mapping contingent contingencies formulating intelligent understanding mapping critical forecasts

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?

Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is.

Stats to consider:

Distance

  • Mars: between 55 and 400 million km from Earth (0.37 to 2.7 AU). It comes nearest to Earth every 2.14 years, or ~26 months.
  • The Moon: ~0.38 million km from Earth (~0.0026 AU).

One-way communication lag

  • Mars: between 3 to 22 minutes
  • The Moon: ~1.3 seconds

Gravity

  • Mars: 0.38 g
  • The Moon: 0.17 g

Rotation period

  • Mars: 25 hours
  • The Moon: 1 month

Atmosphere

  • Mars: mostly CO2, at ~1% the pressure of Earth's.
  • The Moon: negligible if any.

Solar energy

  • Mars: ~44% of Earth's, but occasional dust storms can bring this down to almost nothing.
  • The Moon: same as Earth's, but with no clouds or other interference.

This question is resolved when either the Moon or Mars has 10,000 people living on the body who have been residents for 3+ years at the time of counting. I've chosen 3 years to exclude people who arrive on Mars during one Earth-Mars opposition and leave during the next.

Residents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, are not counted for this question.

'Residence' is defined and determined by the government or entity administering the colony, or a similar official source.

In case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. Ems don't count as humans.

Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.

Categories: Category – Distant Future, Industry – Space, Social — Social Movements, Technology – Space

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.