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79 comments
1.8k forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

6%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
skmmcj
Opened:Dec 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2025
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American Spectator logo
On the Frontlines of the War That Will Change Europe
American Spectator•Oct 2, 2025
FOX News logo
Zelenskyy 'ready' to exit office if war ends, open to elections in ceasefire
FOX News•Sep 26, 2025
New York Post logo
Ukraine President Zelensky says he’s ‘ready’ to step aside after Russia war ends
New York Post•Sep 26, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

54% chance
109

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026
96.8%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
2.9%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0.1%
2 others
88 forecasters

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Less than 30 days
53.1%
91 days or more
21%
61-90 days
12%
2 others
84 forecasters
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