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79 comments
1.8k forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

7%chance
5 pp this week
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
skmmcj
Opened:Dec 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 14, 2025
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If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?

65% chance
107

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Not before 2026
97.2%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
2.5%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0.1%
2 others
74 forecasters

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Less than 30 days
53%
91 days or more
21.1%
61-90 days
12%
2 others
82 forecasters
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