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[Short Fuse] What will this question's interest score be on October 3rd?
I don't have a good idea for a short fuse question, and I understand Metaculites love Keynesian beauty contests, so we get this.
Question: What will be the interest score of this question when it resolves on the 3rd of October 2019?
- The exact resolution time is to be randomly selected by the admin with the help of the random.org website, restricted to a convenient range (I'm not getting up in the middle of the night for this).
- The resolution value will be checked once by the admin within five minutes after the resolution time, and written immediately in the comments.
- This question will close retroactively to the resolution time (edit: the question was closed in accordance with the scheduled auto-closing time).
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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