predicting definitive wisdom formulating intelligent understanding delivering quantitative predictions aggregating quantitative contingencies delivering predictive understanding mapping the future forecasting accurate estimations formulating definitive estimations crowdsourcing intelligent wisdom modeling predictive insights forecasting intelligent insights forecasting precise futures assembling accurate forecasts predicting calibrated understanding


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

If a Republican announces that they will vote for impeachment, or votes for it, what will be the public support for impeachment at that time?

Most commentators treat it as a foregone conclusion that very few if any Republicans will vote for impeachment of Trump in the House, or conviction in the Senate if impeachment occurs. However this will clearly be tied to public opinion. This question seeks to get at how high public support would have to be in order to start Republican defections.

In the event that (a) prior to a vote regarding impeachment, a Republican House member publicly announces that they will vote for impeachment, or (b) an impeachment vote takes place and at least one Republican votes in favor of impeachment, then this question resolves as the average of the most recent three polls (or see below) appearing on regarding public support for impeachment (i.e. 100=100% support for impeaching Trump.)

Details: Question resolves ambiguous if the above event does not occur. Question closes retroactively one week prior to the triggering event. No limits are placed on the wording of the polls, just that they be included in fivethirtyeight's list of recent impeachment polls. If a the time of the event, fivethirtyeight is publishing an aggregate impeachment support poll, that will substitute for the average of the most recent three, using whatever default aggregation fivethirtyeight employs at that time.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.