Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?
There is discussion in the political press about whether Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would be required to take articles of impeachment to a trial, and some make the case that he could block a trial, as he has blocked many other legislative efforts passed to the Senate from the House.
At a minimum, it would be a substantial break with historical precedent if the House impeached the President, referred articles of impeachment to the Senate, and yet the Senate declined to vote one way or the other on the referral.
This question will resolve positively if, before the end of Trump's first term, articles of impeachment are referred by the House and are then subjected to a vote by the full Senate. It will resolve negatively if, by the end of Trump's first term he has been impeached by the House but no such vote by the Senate has been held. It will resolve ambiguously if Trump is not impeached by the House by the end of his first term, or if Trump leaves office before any impeachment by the House.
If more than one set of articles of impeachment are referred to the Senate at different times, only the first referral will be considered for the purposes of this question.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.