Question
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
Total Forecasters35
Community Prediction
0.95%
(0.519% - 1.68%)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.1% | 2.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.5185% | — |
| median | 0.9498% | — |
| upper 75% | 1.682% | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15% | 1.0% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2025
Closes:Mar 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 2, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2025
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
144
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
2%
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2025
Closes:Mar 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 2, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2025
How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?
144
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
2%