Question
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction
0.914%
(0.475% - 2.04%)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.1% | 3.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.4748% | — |
| median | 0.9142% | — |
| upper 75% | 2.044% | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15% | 1.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2025
Closes:Mar 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 2, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2025
Closes:Mar 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 2, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2025