conditional
if yes
if no
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.709
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
1.04
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.1% | 0.8% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.4092% | — |
| median | 0.7095% | — |
| upper 75% | 1.614% | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15% | 2.8% | — |
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 2, 2026
Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Dec 2, 2026
