Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?
In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).
Since beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.
However, van Eenennaam's 2019 article argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is "not fit for purpose" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the FDA has introduced new ventures to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.
When will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?
This question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the bovine SRY gene are legally for sale in the United States.
Resolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.
If this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as "> Oct 5, 2032".
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.