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Who will first land a person on Mars?

This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:

  1. The US government

  2. SpaceX

  3. Another government

  4. Another corporation or private organization

  5. Other (somehow)

Although Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the "weight" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.

Resolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.

Closes retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.