Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?
The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.
It seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:
When will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?
Question resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.
Resolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.
(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.