Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?
Psychedelics are a class of drug whose primary action is to trigger psychedelic experiences via serotonin receptor agonism, causing thought and visual/auditory changes, and altered state of consciousness. Common psychedelic drugs include mescaline, LSD, psilocybin and DMT.
Many psychedelic drugs are illegal worldwide under the UN conventions, occasionally excepting use in a religious or research context. Despite these controls, recreational use of psychedelics is common, with Krebs and Johansen, 2013 estimating that there are over 30 million psychedelic users in the United States.
This year, a group of private donors has given $17 million to start the Center for Psychedelic and Consciousness Research at Johns Hopkins Medicine, to start, what is claimed to be the first such research center in the U.S. and the largest research center of its kind in the world (John Hopkins, 2019).
The corporate side has also taken interest in psychedelics. In March, pharmaceutical and consumer goods firm Johnson & Johnson received FDA approval for a new nasal spray using esketamine, a derivative of ketamine, to help treat patients suffering from depression. Similarly, Atai Life Sciences has reportedly raised $25 million to finance research on the effects of psychedelics and other drugs on depression and other mental illnesses.
In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M, in 2019 USD?
This question resolves positively if credible news reports or credible financial reports indicate that the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M. Psychedelics here include:
- Serotonergic psychedelics, such as psilocybin, psilocin and LSD;
- Empathogens, such as MDMA;
- Dissociatives, such as ketamine.
Note that this list excludes cannabinoids. U.S. investment here is taken to mean investment (by any party) in companies registered in the U.S., research organisations registered in the U.S. Note: admins should take care to avoid double counting in case U.S., companies receive funding to subsequently fund research by U.S. research organisations.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.