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How many Starlink satellites will be in operation on the 1st of July 2020?


Starlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.

According to this Space News article, SpaceX intends to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched and at least 57 are operational.

SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell said in an interview on the 22nd of October 2019 that:

SpaceX is confident it can start offering broadband service in the United States via its Starlink constellation in mid-2020 [...] Getting there will require the company to launch six to eight batches of satellites.

And in another interview on the 27th of October 2019, she said that:

In the next few weeks we’re going to launch another 60 and then get to a cadence of launching 60 every other week to fill out the constellation

Question: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational on the 1st of July 2020?

Resolution details:

  • Resolution is by credible media report.
  • This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin.
  • "Operational" means capable of participating in the Starlink network, whether it is already in operation or not.
  • "On the 1st of July 2020" is 2020-07-01 00:00:00 UTC.

This question has a long-term sister: How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?


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