calculating critical contingencies composing definitive predictions formulating definitive contingencies exploring definitive estimations delivering quantitative estimations mapping the future crowdsourcing critical estimations generating critical predictions delivering predictive forecasts formulating predictive estimations generating quantitative futures modeling precise futures crowdsourcing accurate understanding exploring contingent understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?

According to Leafscience, a life extension advocacy foundation, the thymus is one of the most important organs in the body, and potentially a suitable target for therapies that seek to extend the human health-span:

it is where thymocytes produced in the bone marrow travel to become new T cells before being trained in the lymph nodes to become the defenders of the adaptive immune system. However, as we get older, the thymus increasingly turns to fat and starts to shrink, causing its ability to produce new T cells to fall dramatically. This process is known as thymic involution and actually begins shortly after puberty, so this is one aspect of aging that begins fairly early in life, although it is many decades later before its decline causes serious health issues.

In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?


Resolution

This question resolves positively if between November 2nd 2019 and November 2nd 2020, it is credibly disclosed that a new in vivo study on regeneration or rejuvenating the human thymus has been started after November 2nd 2019. Credible disclosure may be via reporting in scientific (pre-print) articles, or registration in a clinical trial database.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.