calculating critical contingencies composing definitive predictions formulating definitive contingencies exploring definitive estimations delivering quantitative estimations mapping the future crowdsourcing critical estimations generating critical predictions delivering predictive forecasts formulating predictive estimations generating quantitative futures modeling precise futures crowdsourcing accurate understanding exploring contingent understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?

A blockchain, is a growing list of records, called blocks, that are linked using cryptography. Each block contains a cryptographic hash of the previous block, a timestamp, and transaction data.

Blockchain was invented by a person (or group of people) using the name Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008 to serve as the public transaction ledger of the cryptocurrency bitcoin.

In addition to its application in cryptocurrencies, blockchain has also been proposed as a method to enable smart-contracts, i.e. contracts that can be partially or fully executed or enforced without human interaction.

Blockchain, and especially the cryptocurrencies that it enables, have have had some geopolitical ramifications, according to Trustnodes:

As Venezuela embarks on a radical experiment, as Turkey trades with Russia through crypto payments, as Iran considers its own cryptocurrency, and as Saudi Arabia as well as Dubai announce plans to issue digital currencies, the ramifications of blockchain technology to the post world war two financial order are becoming clearer by the day.

In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?

This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:

  • A new cryptocurrency will be issued by national government(s), and achieve a market capitalisation of >$10bn (in 2019 USD);

  • Cryptocurrencies are used to enable trade for goods and services for which at least one counterparty is being economically sanctioned by at least one G20 country, and the value of the trade flow exceeds $750M (in 2019 USD);

  • Cryptocurrencies are used to fund a group designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organizations by the United States, with funding being in excess of $100M;

  • Blockchain enabled smart contracts are implemented by any G20 government as part of national trade policy, or climate change mitigation policies to address commitment problems.

In case it's unclear to admins how to resolve this question, it shall be decided by unanimous vote of a committee of three, comprised of Zaki Manian, Allison Duettmann, and Anthony Aguirre. Resolves ambiguous in case of a non-unanimous vote.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.