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    By November 2020 will a prediction made by a prediction aggregation platform be quoted in the NYT or WaPo on an issue not in politics, sports, or prizes?

    Created by Anthony on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.
    Community prediction hidden until {{qctrl.question.cp_hidden_period_ends_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Anthony on {{qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr}}.
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    Question

    While here we are all fans of making probabilistic predictions and thinking clearly and quantitatively about all sorts of future issues, the fact is that this way of thinking is as yet not at all mainstream.

    As of November 2019, searches by the author of "prediction market", "predictit", "metaculus", "good judgement project" and a few similar terms uncovered no case in which predictions by prediction market or platform were quoted for a topic other than politics, sports, or movie awards.

    This question resolves positive if between November 2, 2019 and November 2, 2020 a particular prediction made by a prediction market, or a crowd-based platform like Metaculus, is quoted in the WaPo or NYT, regarding something that is not related to sports or politics*, or for which an award is given.

    *Construed to mean political contests, ballots, referenda, and the fate of various political figures.

    Categories:
    Metaculus Itself
    Foresight 2020

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