Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?
Recently, it's become increasingly acknowledged that directly targeting the aging process, as opposed to individual aging-related diseases or symptoms, is a viable strategy (Magalhães et al., 2017). This is leading to R&D with the ultimate aim of commercializing therapies directed at slowing aging itself.
One of the more popular areas of research involves senolytics — a class of drugs that target and destroy aging (or senescent) cells. These drugs are in the early stages of development and might be approved by the FDA to be prescribed to target a specific condition or disease, and would carry the secondary impact of slowing down aging. Some, (notably, Unity Biotechnology, the startup with a valuation in excess off $200M) are betting large on the success of senolytics.
In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of 1bn in 2019 USD for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?
This question resolves positively if credible financial reporting indicates that a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn in 2019 USD for a with a primary business focus of longevity. Private funding rounds here refer to venture rounds, mezzanine finance rounds, seed rounds and angel rounds.
Companies are considered working on "longevity" if these are on AgingBiotech.Info's list and listed as "yes" or "only brain" in the "Is it aging?" column. If the list is for some reason no longer available, an admin should decide whether the company is primarily focussed on the research and development of longevity enhancing therapeutics.
Companies that were previously valued in excess $1bn that do not raise money in a private funding stage in the year ending November 2nd, 2020 do not count as qualifying companies for the purpose of this question.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.