Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?
A digit is the finger or toe of land vertebrates, the skeleton of which consists of small bones called phalanges. The tips of the digits are usually protected keratinous structures (claws, in the case of mice) which are also used for defence or manipulation. Digits are numbered one through five, beginning with the inside digit (thumb) when the palm (paw) is face downward (Encyclopædia Britannica).
The fingertip is the only part of the human limb that is regeneration‐competent (Dolan et al., 2018). The regenerating mouse digit tip has emerged as a model to study a clinically relevant regenerative response. According to (Dolan et al., 2018), this is for good reason:
Studies of digit tip regeneration have identified critical components of the regenerative response, and how an understanding of endogenous regeneration can lead to expanding the regenerative capabilities of nonregenerative amputation wounds. Such studies demonstrate that regeneration‐incompetent wounds can respond to treatment with individual morphogenetic agents by initiating a multi‐tissue response that culminates in structural regeneration.
In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in mice or rats (i.e. in excess of endogenous regeneration)?
This question resolves positively if results that provide strong evidence of the efficacy of the medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration digits in mice or rats are published in a reputable journal. The regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy must be "novel" in the sense of having not been previously applied to in vivo studies of regenerative response in rodent models. "Strong" evidence includes findings that are statistically significant at a level of 5%, amongst other criteria decided by an admin.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
Embed this question
You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.