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[Tutorial:] Will Metaculus have over one thousand users signed up by May 1, 2016.

Note: This question is part of the Metaculus tutorial series on the art and science of making successful quantitative predictions. Additional useful information can be found at the Metaculus FAQ.

Most new internet sites don't generate much interest. If a site can bring in over a thousand active users in a few months, it's doing very well. In this question, we set the bar a little lower, and see whether:

Metaculus has greater than one thousand total unique sign ups by May.

This is an exercise in extrapolation, a key method of prediction. To get things started, the total number of registered users (albeit with some duplicate registrations) for the few weeks prior to question publication are:

12/12/2015 38

12/19/2015 67

12/26/2015 93

01/01/2015 129

Positive or negative resolution to be decided by site moderators by May 4, 2016.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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