mapping accurate contingencies delivering probable wisdom composing quantitative understanding formulating definitive forecasts delivering calibrated insights mapping the future aggregating intelligent predictions predicting predictive insights exploring intelligent understanding crowdsourcing probable futures predicting intelligent forecasts formulating critical contingencies predicting accurate predictions computing contingent contingencies

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?

Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery (Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually (Gali et al. 2017a).

As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised (Galli et al, 2017b). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.

There is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands.

When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??


Resolution

This resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.

For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:

  1. techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and

  2. at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.

Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.