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If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term?

One of the issues that Bernie Sanders is running on is Housing for All, a collection of policies intended to increase the availability of affordable housing. Of note for this question are his policies listed under the "end homelessness in America" heading:

  • Prioritize 25,000 National Affordable Housing Trust Fund units in the first year to house the homeless.

  • Double McKinney-Vento homelessness assistance grants to more than $26 billion over the next five years to build permanent supportive housing.

  • Provide $500 million in funding to states and localities to provide outreach to the homeless to help connect them to case management and social services to ensure nobody is left behind.

I am curious about whether these policies will be enacted, and to what extent they will work, so I ask:

If Bernie Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US on a single night in 2024?

Judgement will be by the AHAR point in time estimate published in 2024.

Historically, these values have been:

  • 2014: 175,399

  • 2015: 173,268

  • 2016: 176,357

  • 2017: 190,129

  • 2018: 194,467

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