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When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?

As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:

  • 165 at Alcor (list)
  • 173 at the Cryonics Institute (list)
  • 66 at KrioRus (list)
  • 7 at Oregon Cryonics (list)

For a total of 411.

However, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation The Cryonics Society of California).

To determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?

Resolution details:

  • This question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.

  • This question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.

  • This question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.

  • If any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.

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