Forecast
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now in Draft mode.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Submit Essay

    Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

    Pending

    This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    Submitted

    This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

    How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?

    Created by Matthew_Barnett on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}
    Published by Matthew_Barnett {{"onDate" | translate:({date: (qctrl.question.publish_time | dateStr)})}}

    Question

    The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, the total number of patients increased from 95 to 177.

    How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?

    This question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A "patient" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).

    Categories:
    Human Sciences – Longevity
    Effective Altruism
    Technology – Cryonics

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.