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When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?

As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a Special administrative region of China (along with Macau).

The Hong Kong Basic Law (the de facto constitution of HK) says in Chapter II, article 12:

The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government.

Question: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?

Resolution details:

  • This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong.
  • This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports.
  • In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable.
  • If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached.


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