FORECAST
Facebook Twitter
  • Embed
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • View Metaculus Prediction (free)
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
  • Unmake your prediction
    •

    When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?

    Created by Sylvain on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.

    Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    Question

    As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a Special administrative region of China (along with Macau).

    The Hong Kong Basic Law (the de facto constitution of HK) says in Chapter II, article 12:

    The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government.

    Question: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?

    Resolution details:

    • This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong.
    • This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports.
    • In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable.
    • If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached.
    Categories:
    Geopolitics
    Politics

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    This question is not yet open for predictions.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

    Metaculus help: Predicting

    Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

    The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

    The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

    Thanks for predicting!

    Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

    Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

    Track your predictions
    Continue exploring the site
    random question question list