crowdsourcing calibrated understanding composing predictive estimations modeling accurate estimations modeling definitive wisdom formulating accurate forecasts mapping the future exploring accurate wisdom exploring probable insights computing probable estimations composing intelligent understanding exploring intelligent estimations composing predictive estimations exploring probable futures predicting predictive predictions


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for farm animal welfare by the end 2022?

It is estimated that 60% of the biomass of mammals are livestock. The overwhelming majority of these animals are raised in factory farms, where conditions can involve “intense confinement, inhibition of natural behaviors, untreated health issues, and numerous other causes of suffering”.[1]

World Animal Protection is expected to update its assessment of each country and considers a number of indicators which address the key issues relevant to improving animal welfare around the world. One of these issue is the welfare of farm animals. Specifically, the following three types of concerns related to the welfare of farm animals are considered:

  • The protection of animals’ welfare needs during rearing, such as freedom of movement and freedom to express natural behaviours

  • The protection of animals’ welfare needs during transport

  • The protection of animals’ welfare needs at slaughter, including avoiding unnecessary suffering

In 2017, the USA produced the most beef and veal, and poultry in the world, whilst China produces the most Pork in the world.[2]

In the 2014 Animal Protection Index, the USA was awarded a grade D and China an E for protecting animals used in farming.

Will the Animal Protection Index award either the USA or China with a higher grade than received in the 2014 index for protecting animals used in farming by the end 2022?

This question resolves positively if either the USA receives a grade C or above, or China receives a grade D or above, for the indicator "protecting animals used in farming" (or both). The relevant grades are those published in the second edition of the Animal Protection Index, planned to be released in early 2020. This question resolves ambiguously if the grades for China and the USA for the indicator "protecting animals used in farming" are not issued for any years until, and including 2022, before the end of 2023.

In case multiple versions of the Animal Protection Index are released by the end of 2022, this question resolves per the indicator grades of the first to be released.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.