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    {{qctrl.question.title}}

    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
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    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
    My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
    Created by: Sylvain and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.

    From Wikipedia:

    Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.

    And:

    Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.

    Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.

    Categories:
    Metaculus Itself
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}