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Date of Last Metaculus Resolution


Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.

From Wikipedia:

Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.


Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.

Since the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

Resolution details:

  • "the last Metaculus question resolution" is here defined as either:

    • Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution.
    • The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good.
  • If this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.

  • If Metaculus evolves so much that either "resolution" or "Metaculus question" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.

  • If the concepts of "when", "will", "last" or "occur" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to NASA).

Metaculus Itself

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