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Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?
On 2019-12-03, North Korea's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs issued a statement through the Korean Central News Agency. The statement concluded:
What is left to be done now is the U.S. option and it is entirely up to the U.S. what Christmas gift it will select to get
This is hardly the first time the North Korean government has employed this type of threatening metaphor. For example, the AP notes that:
After the North tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile in July 2017, Kim called the missile a “package of gifts” to the Americans for their Fourth of July holiday.
There are a variety of possible gifts the North Koreans could have in mind, including A nuclear weapon test, A ballistic missile test, An attack on a military target, or An attack on a civilian target...
...or maybe nothing at all! KCNA is full of hyperbolic, aggressive propaganda. North Korea is not the most reliable gift-giver. This could very well be just another bluff. Accordingly, I ask:
Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas gift?
This question resolves negatively if North Korea does (or attempts) any of the following:
- Launching an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile test.
- Testing a nuclear weapon.
- Committing an act of war in which at least one person is injured.
- Any inflammatory acts judged by Metaculus Admins to be commensurate to those listed above.
This question resolves positively if by New Year's day (on-time gifting is hard!), North Korea has not committed any of the above.
One exception: any injury-causing acts of war precipitated by defection attempts will not satisfy a negative resolution, because while defections are a common flash-point in the conflict, that's definitely not the "gift".
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