exploring probable estimations calculating contingent insights formulating predictive predictions generating intelligent insights assembling critical predictions mapping the future formulating definitive predictions modeling probable predictions computing predictive wisdom generating intelligent understanding modeling quantitative contingencies aggregating intelligent understanding predicting precise wisdom exploring quantitative futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas Gift?

On 2019-12-03, North Korea's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs issued a statement through the Korean Central News Agency. The statement concluded:

What is left to be done now is the U.S. option and it is entirely up to the U.S. what Christmas gift it will select to get

This is hardly the first time the North Korean government has employed this type of threatening metaphor. For example, the AP notes that:

After the North tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile in July 2017, Kim called the missile a “package of gifts” to the Americans for their Fourth of July holiday.

There are a variety of possible gifts the North Koreans could have in mind, including A nuclear weapon test, A ballistic missile test, An attack on a military target, or An attack on a civilian target...

...or maybe nothing at all! KCNA is full of hyperbolic, aggressive propaganda. North Korea is not the most reliable gift-giver. This could very well be just another bluff. Accordingly, I ask:

Will North Korea fail to send the U.S. a Christmas gift?

This question resolves negatively if North Korea does (or attempts) any of the following:

  • Launching an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile test.
  • Testing a nuclear weapon.
  • Committing an act of war in which at least one person is injured.
  • Any inflammatory acts judged by Metaculus Admins to be commensurate to those listed above.

This question resolves positively if by New Year's day (on-time gifting is hard!), North Korea has not committed any of the above.

One exception: any injury-causing acts of war precipitated by defection attempts will not satisfy a negative resolution, because while defections are a common flash-point in the conflict, that's definitely not the "gift".


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.