Question

Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?

Resolved:No

19 comments19

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction

12%

(7.1% - 21%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

69.9

Community Peer Score

8.3

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Dec 26, 2019

Closes:

Jan 1, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 28, 2019

Environment & Climate

2016-2025 Leaderboard

What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?

49.9

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14%

Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?

10%