Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?

Question

Recent work in neuroscience suggests that consciousness may not depend on a highly developed cortex, or on any particular brain structure. In 2012, an international group of neuroscientists released "The Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness," arguing that nonhuman animals (including all mammals, birds, octopuses, and some others) possess the neurological substrates that generate consciousness, and that consciousness and intentionality are not uniquely human attributes.

The widespread recognition of nonhuman animal consciousness could have far-reaching implications for the scientific, legal, industrial, and social norms that govern the roles of animals in human society. Since 2009, the European Union has legally recognized animals as “sentient beings,” establishing rules for the protection and welfare of all farmed animals. And recently times, Quebec passed a new animal welfare law on behalf of the Animal Amendment Bill, which now legally recognize animals as sentient beings.

In the 2014 release of the WAP's index 9 countries were awarded a B or A grade on "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience." The countries awarded a B grade were: Denmark, Philippines, New Zealand, Chile, and for A grades: Germany, United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland.

In second edition of the Animal Protection Index planned for release in 2020, how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?


Resolution

This question resolves as the number of countries that are listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience" in the WAP's updated index, currently planned to be released in early 2020. This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following cases:

  • the second edition's indicator grades for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience" are not issued before the end of 2022;

  • the indicator grades for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience" is not issued for at least 80% of countries considered in the 2014 index release;

  • two or more countries awarded a B or A grade in the 2014 index release are not issued a grade for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience" in the next index release.

The data for the 2014 Index can be found in this spreadsheet. Please make a copy by clicking "file" and then "make a copy" if you wish to edit it. The question resolves ambiguously if the second edition ratings are not issued by the end of 2022.

This question shall be retroactively closed and resolved two days before the second edition of the Animal Protection Index is released.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site