exploring quantitative wisdom exploring definitive predictions exploring definitive futures assembling accurate contingencies aggregating critical futures mapping the future modeling contingent understanding forecasting definitive insights forecasting quantitative wisdom generating accurate contingencies computing calibrated predictions predicting probable contingencies computing critical futures aggregating critical insights


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?

In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey stated:

I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.

If half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.

This question resolves positively if any of the terms "aging", "ageing", "anti-aging", "anti-ageing", "longevity", "lifespan", "rejuvenation", or "life extension" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:

  1. The English Wikipedia's "In the news" section.


  2. History.com's summary of events for a year in the 2020's.


  3. The transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.

It also resolves positively if:

  1. A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging.

Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.

In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.

* "longevity research" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.