Question

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

39 comments39

Total Forecasters173

Community Prediction

59%

(36% - 75%)

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50%

community: 59%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 14, 2020

Closes:

Apr 11, 2061

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

4.16

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

33%

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Oct 2050

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 14, 2020

Closes:

Apr 11, 2061

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2020

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Economy & Business

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

4.16

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

33%

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Oct 2050