Question
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
Total Forecasters174
Community Prediction
59%
(36% - 75%)
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 14, 2020
Closes:Apr 11, 2061
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2020
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.54
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
33%
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Feb 2052
Authors:
Opened:Jan 14, 2020
Closes:Apr 11, 2061
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 14, 2020
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.54
Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?
33%
In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?
Feb 2052