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GDP growth to exceed 30% 15-years post HLAI

AI Progress Essay Contest


In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence, he writes

A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.

This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by this Metaculus question. Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.

If a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as The World Bank. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.

If no machine passes that test by 2100-01-01, then this question resolves ambiguously.

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