Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?


During Benjamin Netanyahu's fourth premiership, a number of alleged corruption scandals have been investigated involving Netanyahu and his close political circle. Police recommended indictments against Netanyahu, and on 21 November 2019, Netanyahu was officially indicted for breach of trust, accepting bribes and fraud (BBC, 2019).

In March 2020, Israel will head to the polls and about 9 million Israelis will decide if he is worthy of re-election.

According to this Vox article by Sigal Samuel, Kelsey Piper, and Dylan Matthews:

In March, Israel heads to the polls for the third time in a year, and some observers think this election might finally be the end of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After all, he’s recently been indicted in three corruption cases and he’s facing tough opposition from a centrist party that has a slight lead on him in the polls.

But if there’s one thing I’ve learned from my years living in and reporting on Israel, it’s that you should never underestimate Bibi’s ability to rise from the political ashes. And indeed, Bibi just blew his opponent out of the water in the Likud party primary, winning 72.5 percent of the vote. He’s already using that to fire up his base.

Will Netanyahu remain Israeli’s Prime Minister till the end of 2020?

This question resolves positively if Netanyahu is remains Israel's Prime Minister in the year 2020. This resolves negatively if, for any reason, Netanyahu no longer holds his position of Prime Minister or Prime Minister-designate at any point in the year 2020.

In case negative resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site