Question

Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?

Resolved:Yes

34 comments34

Total Forecasters99

Community Prediction

95%

(90% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

2.7

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jan 14, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 16, 2020

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Environment & Climate

2020 Leaderboard

13-year-old suspected of lighting fireworks that ignited Southern California brush fire

USA Today•Jul 10, 2025

Air Quality Warnings Follow Madre Fire in California, Now the State’s Largest

Breitbart•Jul 7, 2025

Another Wildfire Has Hit California and Newsom's Plan Is to Attack Trump

Townhall•Jul 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

50%

How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?

5.07M

Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

55%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Jan 14, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 16, 2020

Future Perfect 2020 Series

Environment & Climate

2020 Leaderboard

13-year-old suspected of lighting fireworks that ignited Southern California brush fire

USA Today•Jul 10, 2025

Air Quality Warnings Follow Madre Fire in California, Now the State’s Largest

Breitbart•Jul 7, 2025

Another Wildfire Has Hit California and Newsom's Plan Is to Attack Trump

Townhall•Jul 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

50%

How many acres will be burned by fires in the US from January to August 2025?

5.07M

Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

55%