Question

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

907

447 comments447

Total Forecasters4352

Community Prediction

0.2%

(0.1% - 2%)

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50%

community: 0.2%

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Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Oct 13, 2016

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 14, 2016

Technology

Space

A SpaceX rocket exploded in the night. Are Musk’s 2026 Mars ambitions further out of reach?

CNN•Jun 20, 2025

Life on Mars: Humans will live in huge 'space oases' on the Red Planet in just 15 years, European Space Agency predicts

Daily Mail•Jun 19, 2025

Watch: Big setback for Elon Musk, SpaceX's Starship destroyed during testing in massive explosion

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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22%

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

0.1%

Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?

17%