Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?
The Xinjiang re-education camps are internment camps that have been operated by the Xinjiang Uygur government for the purpose of indoctrinating Uyghur Muslims since 2017 as part of a "people's war on terror" announced in 2014 (Wikipedia).
These camps are reportedly operated outside the legal system and many Uyghurs have been interned without trial with no charges levied against them. Local authorities are reportedly holding hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs and Muslims from other ethnic minorities in these camps, for the stated purpose of countering extremism and terrorism as well as to promote sinicization (ibid.).
Will China fail to partially curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?
This question resolves negatively if any of the following conditions obtain:
At least two independent credible reports indicate a reduction of the inmate population of at least 200,000 inmates relative to their estimates made in 2019.
At least two independent credible reports provide compelling evidence that there was a net reduction of at least 200 internment camps in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
The question resolves positively if neither of these two conditions have been satisfied by the end of 2020.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.