Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?


Whole Woman's Health v. Hellersted, is a United States Supreme Court case decided on June 27, 2016. The Court ruled 5–3 that Texas cannot place restrictions on the delivery of abortion services that create an undue burden for women seeking an abortion. The landmark case ensures states must show proof of an actual health benefit when enacting or passing abortion laws.

In December, Texas Attor­ney General Ken Paxton called on the U.S. Supreme Court to dismiss the legal challenge to a Louisiana law that requires abortion providers to obtain hospital admitting privileges within 30 miles of the clinic, and thereby essentially toss out the Whole Woman's Health ruling.

According Vox's Dylan Matthews:

This term, the Supreme Court will hear and rule in the case of June Medical Services LLC v. Gee, a challenge to a Louisiana law requiring abortion providers to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital.

As my colleagues Anna North and Ian Millhiser explain, abortion rights advocates consider this restriction both medically unnecessary (the rate of complications for first-trimester abortions is very low, and you don’t need admitting privileges to send people with complications to a nearby hospital) and designed to shut down abortion clinics.

But more importantly, the Supreme Court already struck down a nearly identical Texas law in 2016’s Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt. The fact that it’s hearing this case so soon after setting a precedent that admitting privileges laws are unconstitutional suggests strongly that the Court — which has since added Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh and lost abortion rights supporter Anthony Kennedy — is ready to overrule Whole Women’s Health and allow more state restrictions on abortion.

I think there’s a real, maybe 20-30 percent chance that the anti-abortion rights majority on the court overrules Roe v. Wade outright, pulling off the Band-aid and eliminating the constitutional right to abortion in one fell swoop, as many GOP politicians have urged them to do with this case. But whether or not Roe falls, I think it’s a near-certainty that Whole Women’s Health will fall.

Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?

This question resolves positively if Vox, the NYT, WaPo, Reuters, Politico, or the Associated Press reports that the Whole Woman's Health v. Hellersted is effectively overturned before the end of 2020.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site