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Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?
The Doomsday Clock is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such a as a number of "minutes" to midnight. Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. Since January 2018, the clock has been set at two minutes to midnight.
This question asks: When the Doomsday Clock is next updated, will the time be later than two minutes to midnight?
The clock need not advance by a full minute; any advance will suffice for a positive resolution. If the clock is left unchanged at two minutes to midnight, or if it is moved back, this question resolves negatively. If the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock is to be discontinued before any relevant time changes (or decisions to leave it unchanged) are announced, this question resolves ambiguously.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.