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When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
The Doomsday Clock is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of "minutes" (and recently "seconds") to midnight.
Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.
This question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
This resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement.
If resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to > 2100-01-01.
If either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.
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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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