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Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?
Since 1980 (10 presidential elections), this has happened three times (Anderson in 1980, Ross Perot in 1992, and Ross Perot in 1996). It didn't happen in 2016 with either Stein or Johnson. Will it happen in 2020?
"Third-party candidate" is defined as a candidate that was not nominated by either the US Democratic or US Republican party. Resolution by credible media report as of 9 pm 2020-11-17 California time.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.