45 comments
378 forecasters
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Current estimate
Aug 2043
Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2020
When will China first successfully land people on Mars?
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
34 forecasters
When will the first tourist land on Mars?
>Jan 2050
(May 2047 - >Jan 2050)
>Jan 2050
(May 2047 - >Jan 2050)
51 forecasters
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
0.1% chance
4.4k