44 comments
374 forecasters
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Current estimate
Jul 2043
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2020
When will China first successfully land people on Mars?
Jan 2048
(Oct 2041 - Mar 2057)
Jan 2048
(Oct 2041 - Mar 2057)
33 forecasters
When will the first tourist land on Mars?
>Jan 2050
(Oct 2046 - >Jan 2050)
>Jan 2050
(Oct 2046 - >Jan 2050)
51 forecasters
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
0.1% chance
4.4k