45 comments
378 forecasters
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Current estimate
Aug 2043
Key Factors
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Jan 23, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 25, 2020
When will China first successfully land people on Mars?
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
34 forecasters
When will the first tourist land on Mars?
>Jan 2050
(Oct 2046 - >Jan 2050)
>Jan 2050
(Oct 2046 - >Jan 2050)
51 forecasters
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
0.1% chance
4.4k