modeling quantitative contingencies exploring quantitative futures exploring probable estimations aggregating calibrated estimations modeling predictive insights mapping the future forecasting accurate estimations predicting probable predictions predicting accurate estimations formulating contingent estimations predicting definitive predictions crowdsourcing contingent estimations calculating contingent contingencies forecasting predictive futures


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11?

The US election will be held Tuesday November 8. Early results generally allow the major news organizations to "call" the election on Tuesday evening, and the loser to concede to the victor – a notable exception being Bush v. Gore 2000, which led to weeks of controversy and was ultimately settled by the Supreme Court.

This year, in addition to the perennial possibility of a close election requiring recounts, there are concerns being raised by both candidates about potential manipulation of the election results.

Clinton's concerns are based on the reported hack of the DNC's email servers, emails from which have appears on Wikileaks, which has been reported by US intelligence to "with high confidence" be orchestrated by the Russian government, as well as reports of Russian hacking of US election systems

The basis for Trump's concerns (other than his position in the polls) is unclear.

Will the election be decided by the beginning of the day, November 11?

Question resolves positively if Clinton or Trump publicly concedes the election prior to midnight EDT November 10.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.