• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
251 comments
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

29%chance
Top Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
23 votes
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Up to 50% of all variation in lifespan may be due to genetic factors, indicating a significant but not exclusive role of genetics in determining longevity.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
14 votes
Limited rapamycin use limits lifespan extension potential
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
5 votes
The FOXO3 gene is closely associated with longevity, and particular variants of this gene are found more frequently in individuals aged 90 and above, suggesting a genetic basis for extended lifespan.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
Authors:
Anthony
Opened:Oct 18, 2016
Closes:Jan 1, 2151
Scheduled resolution:Jan 3, 2151
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 19, 2016
Social Sciences
Health & Pandemics
Daily Mail logo
Data reveals you're more likely to live to 100 than ever before - experts reveal what they have in common
Daily Mail•Oct 21, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will the first person reach 150 years of age?

2134
(2087 - 2197)
2134
(2087 - 2197)
18 forecasters

When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born?

2098
(Dec 1993 - 2901)
2098
(Dec 1993 - 2901)
198 forecasters

Will there be any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?

97% chance
436