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251
comments
1.6k
forecasters
Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?
29%
chance
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
23 votes
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Up to 50% of all variation in lifespan may be due to genetic factors, indicating a significant but not exclusive role of genetics in determining longevity.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
14 votes
Limited rapamycin use limits lifespan extension potential
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
5 votes
The FOXO3 gene is closely associated with longevity, and particular variants of this gene are found more frequently in individuals aged 90 and above, suggesting a genetic basis for extended lifespan.
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
8 votes
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Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
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Resolution Criteria
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Authors:
Anthony
Opened:
Oct 18, 2016
Closes:
Jan 1, 2151
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 3, 2151
Spot Scoring Time:
Oct 19, 2016
Social Sciences
Health & Pandemics
News Match
Data reveals you're more likely to live to 100 than ever before - experts reveal what they have in common
Daily Mail
•
Oct 21, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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