270
1.6k forecasters

Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?

28%chance
Top Key Factors
Genetics restricts lifespan for large population subset
Decreases Likelihood
Life expectancy for the longest-lived populations has been growing more or less linearly since the 1840s.
Increases Likelihood
Up to 50% of all variation in lifespan may be due to genetic factors, indicating a significant but not exclusive role of genetics in determining longevity.
Decreases Likelihood
Alzheimer's hampers developments in radical life extension
Decreases Likelihood
The FOXO3 gene is closely associated with longevity, and particular variants of this gene are found more frequently in individuals aged 90 and above, suggesting a genetic basis for extended lifespan.
Decreases Likelihood
Limited rapamycin use limits lifespan extension potential
Decreases Likelihood