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How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?

Cross-posted on Metaculus.

Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric. However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see here).

The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to its 2019 report:

The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.

Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.

How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?


This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to ZSW's data service. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.


According to ZSW's data service, these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:

2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.


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