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Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?

Question

As of 2020-02-03, the outbreak of COVID-19 is widespread within China, and continuing to grow rapidly, particularly at the outbreak's epicenter, Hubei province. That said, Hubei is far from the most populous or most densely populated province in China, let alone the rest of the world. Another larger population could overtake Hubei as the location with the largest infected population.

Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?

  • This question resolves positively if, at any time in 2020, a credible information source indicates that the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in any sub-national political unit exceeds that of China's Hubei province.
  • The information sources for this outbreak are still fluid at the time of writing. Some possibilities include the WHO COVID-19 Dashboard, the JHU CSSE 2019-COVID-19 dashboard, and the relevant WHO Situation Reports. Other sources may be assessed at the Metaculus' admins judgement.
  • The location need not necessarily be Chinese, or a province. If, for example, a large outbreak is reported in a specific city (other than a city already in Hubei Province, of course), that city may be the location which triggers the positive resolution. (This is merely a guiding example, and not the only specific alternative. Any sub-national political unit may qualify, provided it meets the criterion that it has more confirmed cases of COVID-19 within the timespan of this question.)
  • This question resolves negatively if after midnight (EST) on 2021-01-01, no credible information source has reported a greater number of confirmed infections in any subnational political unit than the number reported in China's Hubei province.

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