conditional
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

75%
75%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

11%
11%
5

Make a Prediction

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

50%
community: 75%

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Cato
Opened:May 13, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050