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Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?

Former Mayor of New York City and current Democratic candidate Michael Bloomberg (b. 1942) has mounted a campaign with no precedent in US history. For one thing, he has refused to accept contributions and is instead self-funding his campaign; since entering the race in December last year, he has outspent all the other candidates combined. Because he has received no external funding, Bloomberg was also automatically disqualified from participating in all of the primary debates. In addition, Bloomberg has chosen not to compete in any of the first four states, regarded by many as critical for building momentum. His strategy is instead to focus on "Super Tuesday", the day—March 3rd—when the greatest number of U.S. states hold primary elections and caucuses, and when more delegates are at stake than on any other day during the primaries.

Bloomberg's popularity has surged in recent polls; as of February 7th, he is polling at 11% nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator. Pete Buttigieg, who won the most delegates in Iowa and has also seen a slight increase in popularity after this victory, is still only polling at 8%; while Joe Biden, the frontrunner until recently, had a singularly disappointing election, which may be repeated in New Hampshire, and generally appears to be running out of steam.

These three candidates–Biden, Buttigieg and Bloomberg—may be considered the only moderate Democrats running with a realistic chance of winning the nomination. After Super Tuesday, one of them will likely emerge as the leading alternative to democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. A natural test of whether Bloomberg's strategy has succeeded is whether he comes to occupy this position. So we ask: Will Michael Bloomberg win more delegates than Biden and Buttigieg on Super Tuesday?

Resolution

The question resolves positively if Michael Bloomberg obtains more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg individually. The question resolves negatively otherwise. Failure by a candidate to run in one or more of these elections will be treated as if the candidate had won no delegates in those elections. The elections scheduled to occur on that day are those in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Resolution is according to official records.

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