Question

Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?

40 comments40

Total Forecasters258

Community Prediction

(2% - 9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 14, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2020

People's Liberation Army

China

Taiwan deports a Chinese woman for praising Beijing’s military ambitions to conquer the island

Associated Press•Mar 25, 2025

Taiwanese Military to Simulate 2027 Chinese Invasion

Breitbart•Mar 22, 2025

Taiwan reveals timeline for potential full-scale China invasion

Independent•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?

20%

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

41%

Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028? → Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?

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